Previewing the Road to Omaha

The field of 64 has been set for the NCAA Baseball Championships, and much like March Madness, there are plenty of story lines before a game is even played. There are some fantastic potential match-ups, intriguing contrasts of styles, and of course those on the outside looking in. There is always debate on who the selection committee should have put in and left out. Plenty of upsets in mid-major conference tournaments only shrunk the bubble and made it tougher for the committee. So some thoughts on the tournament, starting by looking at the overall makeup of the tournament.

Carolina deserves the last
hosting spot.

First the 16 hosts, which certainly had some interesting selections. First there is the debate for the final hosting spots. Going into the conference tournaments it seemed that Clemson and South Carolina had a pretty safe hold on those spots, but then those two went a combined 0-5 in their tournaments, opening the door for Virginia Tech who came out of nowhere and went an incredible 16-4 in their last 20 games. Many wondered if Arkansas would overtake the Gamecocks for that last spot, while many thought a 3rd place finish in the SEC and a sweep at Columbia would be enough, the Hogs were unable to control their own destiny with games earlier in the season. The Hogs went 0-6 in trips to Arizona and Nebraska, if the Hogs change that to just a 3-3 record, then they've got a 40-17 record and their RPI rises closer to 20, a resume that would have surely gotten them a host. Instead, I believe the Hogs rightfully missed a host spot.

Looking at the eight national seeds, there were two major things that surprised me. First that Florida State got a national seed above NC State, and that SEC Champions LSU were the #4 seed. The Seminoles and Wolfpack had nearly identical resumes. one was 44-14, the other had 44-15 record. Florida State's RPI was 8, NC State's was 7. The two things that I thought put NC State in front was a better SOS and the fact that NC State went 2-1 in the ACC Tournament while the Seminoles lost their last four games. I also thought the SEC Championship was for the number 1 overall seed, and boy was I wrong, not only did Vandy finish ahead of LSU, but LSU dropped to the #4 seed. Dropping below Oregon State was especially surprising, although Oregon State does feature one of the top rotations in the country. It starts with Andrew Moore who has a record of 12-1 with a 1.44 ERA, Max Engelbrekt (10-3, 2.09 ERA) and Ben Wetzler (7-1, 2.10 ERA) round out an impressive lineup that will be a tough out for any team in a super regional.

Now for the bubble teams, where I think two teams have major arguements. Lets look at some blind resumes.

Team A: 49-10, RPI 38
Team B: 29-28, RPI 35
Team C: 33-23, RPI 43
Team D: 33-22, RPI 50

49 wins should have the Camels
in the tournament.

I would argue team A and C should get in especially Team B and C finished one game apart in the same confrence, the thing is they didn't. Teams A and C are Campbell and Auburn, Teams B and D are Florida and San Francisco. I don't care one bit in this case that Florida had a stronger SOS than Campbell, they won TWENTY more games than the Florida Gators did. I don't care what schedule the Camels had, a team with almost 50 wins needs to be in over a team that couldn't even get 30. At the end of the season, Auburn proved they earned more than San Francisco as well. Auburn ended SEC play with series wins and a 6-3 record over Ole Miss, Florida (Seriously, how did they get in?) and Arkansas. That alone should have pushed them ahead of both Florida and San Francisco. They ended their season with a tough loss to Alabama, but the incredibly stupid format of the SEC Tournament prevented them from getting another chance.

There are always regionals that are more appealing than others, but there are a few in particular that I am most interested in.

Eshelman is one of the many elite
pitchers in the tournament

Southern California is the place to be for the regionals this year. The winners of the Los Angeles and Fullerton regionals will matchup in the Super Regionals, and these to me will be the most entertaining and competitive regionals. I mean just look at the Fullerton Regional. Cal State Fullerton, Arizona St, New Mexico. Columbia gets a free ticket to see these three teams. New Mexico can rake, with 10 players hitting over .300. DJ Peterson has some outstanding numbers this season, hitting .411 with 18 home runs. Fullerton pitchers, especially Thomas Eshelman, can be lights out. Eshelman is 11-2 with a 1.68 ERA. While I love Sun Devils baseball and they will certainly have a say in the result of the regional, Eshelman going up against the Lobos lineup could be the highlights of the regionals.

With the dead bats, Bryant's
31 homers is impressive.

Any of these teams makes for a great matchup for the Los Angeles regional, that could feature a cross town matchup between the Toreros and the Aztecs, a underrated Cal Poly team taking on Pac-12 giants UCLA. The Bruins and Cal Poly both are not teams that statistically jump out at you, in fact, Cal Poly only has three starters hitting about .300, UCLA has none. Their best hitter, Kevin Kramer is only hitting .290. San Diego features the one of the top hitters in college baseball, Kris Bryant. He is hitting .340 , 62 RBI's and has a NCAA leading 31 home runs. Any combination of these teams would make for great Super Regionals, There are a great mix of strengths as well. We can see great pitchers go up against premier hitters no matter the matchups.

No one wants to face Stanek or the
Razorback's pitching staff

While watching the selection show, I was pretty certain the Hogs were getting sent to Kansas State's regional, I was much more interested in who their first game would be against. When Bryant flashed up on the screen, I asked the same one word question every Razorback fan had, "Who?" Looking at the regional as a whole, the Wildcats definitely got the short end of the straw with their draw. Bryant is an unknown by many, but they hung tough with Oregon State and Ohio State early in the season, so they won't just roll over. Wichita State may have been an upset in the Missouri Valley, but they are not to be taken lightly either. The Arkansas Razorbacks though is the killer. Undoubtedly the toughest #2 seed in the tournament, no one wants to go up against ace and future first round pick Ryne Stanek. Kansas State has one of the stronger lineups in the country, with five starters hitting over .330, however, the Big 12 doesn't have a pitching staff that compares to the Hogs. Trey Killian has the Hogs highest ERA at 3.19, to put that in perspective, Kansas State has only three with a better ERA. The Manhattan regional has 15 pitchers with an ERA below 2.00, Arkansas has nine of those 15.

All across the country there is potential for marquee pitching matchups. In Raleigh we could see NC State's Carlos Rodon (8-2, 3.48 ERA) take on Bobby Whal from Ole Miss. (9-0, 1.99 ERA) Vanderbilt will not have a cakewalk for their first game. East Tennessee State will throw out Kerry Doane who is 13-1 with a 1.99 ERA and has thrown an impressive 12 complete games. Oklahoma could send either Jonathan Grey (9-2, 1.55 ERA) or Dillon Overton (9-2, 2.89 ERA) against the red hot bats that the Virginia Tech Hokies have. Mississippi State also has a tough road, playing a #4 seed that took 2 of 3 earlier in the season in Central Arkansas. South Alabama is another tough out behind their solid lineup.

Prediction Time!
Chapel Hill: North Carolina
Columbia: South Carolina
CWS Pick: The Tar Heels are just too good for the Gamecocks trying to make their 4th straight CWS, it will be a tough fight but in the end North Carolina 2-1


Raleigh: Ole Miss
Eugene: Oregon
CWS Pick: Ole Miss fail in the Supers again, Oregon 2-0.

Fullerton: Cal State Fullerton
Los Angeles: Cal Poly
CWS Pick: Many will consider the Mustangs a huge cinderella, but they should't. They will make it to Omaha, Cal Poly takes the series 2-1.

Blacksburg: Oklahoma
Baton Rouge: LSU
CWS Pick: LSU 2-0, The Tigers wont let last years let down to Stony Brook happen again.

Nashville: Vanderbilt
Louisville: Louisville
CWS Pick: Louisville hasn't faced the level of competition Vandy has an it will show, Vanderbilt 2-0.

Bloomington: Indiana
Tallahassee: Alabama
CWS Pick: Alabama is rolling after taking out a struggling Seminole team, but can't get past a Indiana squad that claws out two wins, Indiana 2-1.

Charlottesville: Virginia
Starkvegas: South Alabama
CWS Pick: The Jaguars have flown under the radar all season and take the Cavaliers by surprise, South Alabama 2-1.

Corvallis: Oregon State
Manhattan: Arkansas
While picking the Guachos of Santa Barbara was tempting, the two best pitching staffs going at it for the last spot in Omaha is too much to pass up, and for my homer pick, Stanek and company play with a chip on their shoulder and Arkansas gets a 2-1 series win.