Thursday, June 13, 2013

Breaking Down the College World Series

Beautiful TD Ameritrade Park
My predictions on who would make it to Omaha didn't go so well. I only got LSU, Indiana and North Carolina right. The postseason has been very interesting, the regional round was largely chalk, only Oregon and Virginia Tech were the only hosts to not win their regional. The number 1 seeds in the regional round went a combined 47-7. However the super regionals were completely different. the hosts were only 8-10 and only three national seeds are making the trip to Omaha. Omaha still has plenty of great teams and story lines this year. Even though my hometown team isn't making the trip, I still will watch the games fondly remembering my two trips to the College World Series wishing I was at the greatest event in all of baseball.

Previewing the Omaha 8:

Mississippi State Bulldogs: 9th Appearance (48-18)

How they got here: Got through a tough regional with South Alabama and went to the final day against Central Arkansas, but the Bulldogs got their revenge from losing a weekend series to the Bears earlier this season. Then moved on to Virginia and took down the Cavaliers with a pair of 6-5 wins.

Mississippi State is making their first appearance in Omaha since 2007 with a very balanced team, highlighted by a stellar bullpen. While their starting rotation doesn't have stellar numbers, the bullpen has been there the entire season. Ross Mitchell has the most impressive numbers on the team. He has a 12-0 record without making a start this season to go along with a 1.35 ERA. Jonathan Holder has a 1.31 ERA and leads the team with 18 saves. They also can rely on Chad Girodo and Ben Bracewell to get outs late in the game. At the plate, the Bulldogs are led by a duo with tons of power. Hunter Renfroe and Wes Rea have had success all year against some excellent SEC pitching. Renfroe was taken by the San Diego Padres with the 13th pick and is hitting .360 with 15 homeruns and 61 RBI's. Rea is hitting .288 with 7 homeruns. 6th round pick Adam Frazier will be the table setter for these two, he's hitting .349 and leads the team with seven triples.

What to expect: A little bit of everything, and Renfroe getting intentionally walked.

Oregon State Beavers: 5th Appearance (50-11)

How they got here: Cruised through their regional, had a tough time getting past a pesky Kansas State team who took the first game of the Super Regional, but the Beavers came back and won the next two.

The Beavers are led by their pitching, and have the best weekend rotation in Omaha and possibly the country. The trio of Matt Boyd, Andrew Moore and Ben Wetzler have been elite all season long. All three have ERA's under 2.15 and the three starters have combined for a record of 33-5. Boyd has been the senior leader all season. The sixth round pick has struck out 110 batters this season. Moore has been the freshman sensation this year, with a 1.36 ERA and only allowing a .194 average. The rotation is key for Oregon State making a deep run, with the bullpen having recent struggles, Boyd was brought in to make the save in the final game against Kansas State. At the dish, Dylan Davis and Michael Conforto lead the Beavers. They are the top-2 for the Beavers in RBI's, homeruns, slugging percentage and total bases.

What to expect: Elite starting pitching, and some unusual bullpen decisions.

Indiana Hoosiers: 1st Appearance (48-14) 

How they got here: Tore through their regional, outscoring opponents 26-11, then took on the mountainous task of sweeping the Florida State Seminoles.

This year the closest thing to Cinderella is the newcomers from the hoosier state, but Indiana doesn't play like underdogs. Being the first Big 10 team to make the College World Series since the 1980's could make them easy to over look, but that would be a huge mistake. There are plenty of solid pitchers in the Hoosier's staff, they feature a team ERA of 2.67 and opponents are only hitting .249 against them. Their two best players were both taken by the Minnesota Twins in this year's draft. Ace pitcher Aaron Slegers in the 5th round and 3B Dustin DeMuth in the 8th. Slegers has come on strong this season and taken the top spot in the rotation, his 9-1 record and 2.13 ERA has been among the best in the Big 10. DeMuth has been the leader at the plate for Indiana, and he does it all. He hits .389, has 5 homeruns, and 11 stolen bases. Aside from DeMuth Indiana also has some real power threats. Sam Travis and Kyle Schwarber both have over 50 RBI's and 10 and 18 homeruns, respectively.

What to expect: Indiana has already done more than anyone else in their program's history, but will not be satisfied by going 0-2.

Louisville Cardinals: 2nd Appearance (51-12)

How they got here: Easily made it though their regional, and then upset the #2 seeded Vanderbilt Commodores in Nashville.

Louisville will give Oregon State a run for their money when it comes to who has the best starting rotation. Jeff Thomson and Chad Green have been the best 1-2 punch in the Big East, while Dace Kime has recently held down the Sunday spot for the Cardinals. The biggest gem in the Cardinals pitching staff though is closer Nick Burdi. Burdi has hit 100 on the radar gun multiple times this season while piling up 16 saves and 68 strikeouts. In over 34 innings of work, he has posted a minuscule 0.78 ERA. The sophomore will definitely be a top pick in next years draft. The Cardinals standout in the field is also the runner up of the best name in Omaha, Coco Johnson. He is hitting .333 with 8 homeruns and 22 stolen bases. This season, Louisville has shown that they like to put a lot of pressure on opposing defenses. They have stolen 150 bases in 195 attempts, led by Adam Engel who has an incredible 41 stolen bases this season.

What to expect: If the Cardinals jump to the early lead and Burdi gets a save chance, just shut it down.

North Carolina Tar Heels: 10th appearance (57-10) 

How they got here: Its been a marathon for the Tar Heels to get to Omaha, but a 13 inning thriller in the regional led them to a long 3 game series against South Carolina to make their 6th appearance in eight years.

The #1 seed in the tournament has looked a little vulnerable in the tournament so far, but by the end of the game, they've shown why they earned the top national seed. The Tar Heels are solid all around, a 2.52 team ERA, a .305 average, fielding at a .975 clip. North Carolina has all the tools to win it all but have looked incredibly beatable in the past few weeks. The Heels are led by Golden Spikes contender and 6th overall pick Colin Moran. He is hitting .357 on the season, racked up 13 homeruns and 84 RBI's. Moran has been clutch all season and will be a threat no matter what the situation is. The winner of the best name in Omaha goes to Skye Bolt, who is also a solid hitter for the Heels. He is hitting .349 and has 10 stolen bases to go along with 6 homeruns. On the mound, Kent Emanuel has been the leader of the staff with a 2.11 ERA, Trent Thomson has been the top reliever featuring a 1.29 ERA.

What to expect: Expect high drama with these Tar Heels, and probably to win some games the have no business winning.

NC State Wolfpack: 2nd Appearance (49-14) 

How they got here: Methodically mowed down their opponents going 5-0 so far in the postseason.

There's always that one team that doesn't statistically jump out as far a team stats, but always seems to find a way in the biggest moments. That team this year is NC State. Most of the teams in Omaha can do better than the Wolfpack's 3.09 ERA, and their team .279 batting average, but they still find a way to win. In fact, Brad Stone has been NC State's sunday starter and has posted a 5.28 ERA this season. One player who has impressed however, is Carlos Rodon. He is just a sophomore and for his career he is 18-2. He has the ability to be simply dominant, this season he has struck out 170 batters and walked only 42. Like the Wolfpack, Rodon has been more and more dominant as the season has gone on and if he continues to show his stuff in Omaha, even the elite lineups that will face him will have a hard time getting hits.

What to expect: NC State will probably get out hit, and look like they shouldn't be in the game, but they will have a shot to win.

UCLA Bruins: 5th appearance (44-17)

How they got here: Pitched their way through a tough regional, and right by a stingy Cal St Fullerton team.

UCLA is a big surprise to me in Omaha because, well, they don't hit very well. Hitting .251 as a team and having nobody on your team hitting over .300 usually isn't a recipe for success in postseason baseball. Instead they completely rely on pitching and defense, led by the arms of their two 6th round draft picks Nick Vander Tuig and Zack Weiss. Vander Tuig leads the team in innings pitched and strikeouts, all while posting a 2.37 ERA. Weiss has made 41 relief appearances for the Bruins after being a starter for them last season. He has posted a 2.33 ERA in over 38 innings of work. The "top" hitter for UCLA would be Pat Valakia, who is hitting .257 with five home runs and 44 RBI's. As a team UCLA is excellent at manufacturing what few runs they need, this means getting walks, and boy do they have a good collective eye. The Bruins have more walks (264) than they have RBI's (261).

What to expect: Smallball. Lots and lots of smallball.

LSU Tigers: 16th appearance (57-9) 

How they got here: Looked pretty bad in a weak regional, but got through it and out dueled the Oklahoma Sooners.

What great matchups we have on this side of the bracket! Rivals NC State and North Carolina, and the excellent pitching and west coast style of UCLA against the powerful LSU Tigers. LSU certainly knows how to hit the baseball. Just ask Raph Rhymes who is hitting .343 on the year and flirted with hitting .500 for a good bit of last season. But wait, theres more! Freshman all-american Alex Bregman is currently hitting .380, while Mason Katz is at a .366 clip with 15 homeruns. Sean McMullen and Christian Ibarra are also threats to get big hits. The Tigers can also pitch, in the duel of the postseason so far, Aaron Nola was able to out-duel Oklahoma stud Jonathan Grey in a 2-0 win. Cody Glenn and Ryan Eades will also face stiff chalenges for anyone going up against them. Many are comparing them to the 2009 Champion team that tore through Omaha.

What to expect: A solid team top to bottom, but can lay an egg that can keep them from a title.

Who will emerge as the champions this year? Another Pac-12 team? Will an SEC squad reclaim the title? Will the ACC get their first title since 1954?

On one side, it will be an incredible fight between Louisville and Oregon State, but the lack of bullpen for the Beavers keeps them out. While LSU is able to fight past North Carolina to make for a Louisville vs. LSU final, with the Louisville Cardinals winning 2-0.

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